A look at the top 10 Nittany Lions — regardless of class — in terms of their future NFL potential
Mark Brennan
With the 2023 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, plenty of focus has already been directed toward the 2024 event. When it comes to Penn State players and how they project, Daniel Gallen has done an excellent job of gathering that information.
But I wanted to take a look at things from a different perspective. Rather than predicting which Nittany Lions might go where in the 2024 draft, I’ve decided to rank the top 10 players in the program — regardless of projected draft class — based on their NFL potential.
In compiling the list — figuring out which athletes belonged where and who to leave out (which was really tough) — the overall depth of talent in the program became evident. There are guys who did not make this list who are virtual locks to be drafted in the coming years. Some of them — like Adisa Isaac, Johnny Dixon and Tyler Warren — could be middle-rounders as soon as 2024. A few things to keep in mind:
1. Remember, I am talking about NFL potential here, not simply how high someone will be drafted. So while positional value is (and really must be) taken into account, it is not the be-all, end-all it tends to be in mock drafts.
2. Join me in knocking on wood for everyone listed here — and all players on all teams, really. This does take into account injury histories, but assumes players will remain healthy until their draft day rolls around.
3. Your feedback on this kind of thing is always appreciated — even (and especially) if you disagree with me. It’s fun to kick around this sort of thing during the offseason. If you thinkI missed someone, let us know why and who you would remove from the list to add your selection.
HONORABLE MENTION: LB Curtis Jacobs
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2023
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 2
COMMENTS: Curtis Jacobs was actually eligible for the 2023 NFL Draft but decided to return to Penn State. He has a Covid year available in 2024, but — barring injury — it’ll be a bit surprising if he sticks around that long.
Jacobs is athletic and has played well at the Sam and Will LB positions. He’s fast, too, having run a 4.46 40 in the spring (at 235 pounds). That versatility and speed could make him the first Penn State linebacker not named Micah Parsons to be drafted in the first three rounds since Sean Lee in 2010.
10. OL Drew Shelton
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2025
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 3
COMMENTS:Drew Shelton has a chance to climb on this list in the next year or two. Last preseason, he was described as the most technically advanced true freshman offensive lineman James Franklin has had, which is saying something given that Franklin was entering his 12th season as a head coach. Shelton’s skills were put to the test when injuries forced him to start the final five games of the season at left tackle, and he more than held his own as the Lions went 5-0 in that stretch, including a win over Utah in the Rose Bowl.
The key question here is whether he’ll continue to steadily fill out. At 6-foot-5, he’s up to 300 pounds now. But that’s relatively light for the NFL, where a recent study noted that the average weight for offensive tackles is about 318 pounds and in 2022 only two tackles weighed less than 300.
I’m guessing Shelton’s upward trajectory will continue, but he may not be quite ready to make the move to the next level until 2026.
9. TE Theo Johnson
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2023
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 2
COMMENTS: After missing spring practice with an unspecified injury, Theo Johnson is expected to be back at full strength for preseason camp. If he can put what appears to be a relatively minor off-field incident behind him, he has a chance to become the fourth Penn State tight end in seven years to go in the second round of the NFL Draft.
At 6-6, 260 pounds, Johnson is physically imposing. But he is extremely athletic for his size, having posted the fastest 40-yard dash of the Franklin era at 4.51 seconds. (For context, Mike Gesicki is second at 4.54). That translated onto the field last season, when Johnson led Penn State with 16.4 yards per catch and tied for third on the squad with four receiving touchdowns.
He was slowed by an injury early in the season, but came on strong down the stretch. He had at least three catches and 43 receiving yards in three of PSU’s final four regular-season games.
8. WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2023
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 2
COMMENTS: KeAndre Lambert-Smith and KJ Hamler are the only Penn State receivers of the Franklin era to crack 4.3 seconds in the 40-yard dash. Unlike the diminutive Hamler, Lambert-Smith is a solid 6-1, 185-pounder who ought to be more durable at the next level.
After some wildly inconsistent play early in his career, Lambert-Smith really stepped up when leading pass-catcher Parker Washington missed the final three games of 2022 (including the Rose Bowl) with an ankle injury. He had 11 catches for 216 yards and two scores in that span, including a career-best 124-yard, one TD outburst versus Utah in Pasadena. He averaged an impressive 16.2 yards per catch for the year, which was — by far — the best among PSU’s wide receivers.
Given how valuable speedy receivers have become in the NFL, Lambert-Smith stands to make a lot of money if he can carry over his late-2022 performance into a consistent 2023.
7. DE Dani Dennis-Sutton
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2025
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 3
COMMENTS: It is difficult to gauge just how tall Dani Dennis-Sutton is unless you are standing right next to him. Penn State lists him at 6-5, 262, and he is every bit of that. The coaching staff had the luxury of bringing him along slowly during his true freshman season of 2022 (he played only 225 snaps, fifth among D-ends), yet he still finished with 3.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, three quarterback hurries and an interception. In other words, when he did play, he had an innate ability to be in the right place at the right time.
Dennis-Sutton has already posted a 4.66 40 — which is decent for his size — and you can expect that time to improve the longer he is in the program. Further, he is going to be able to continue to learn this year as a key member of a D-end platoon that will include veterans Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac (the latter of whom fell just outside of this list).
6. DE Chop Robinson
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2024
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 2
COMMENTS: At 6-3, 253 pounds, Chop Robinson ripped off a 4.47 40 in the spring. Only Odefe Oweh’s ridiculous 4.33 has been better among defensive linemen of the Franklin era. So we are officially into freak athletic ability here.
Robinson did not start a game last season, but that was smoke and mirrors by the PSU staff. Among defensive ends, his 455 snaps were second only to Isaac’s 505. Robinson generated 10 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks and three QB hurries, while causing one fumble and recovering another.
It is easy to see why he is already generating buzz as a potential first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
5. RB Nick Singleton
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2025
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 3
COMMENTS: OK, this is where things start to get tricky. Nick Singleton established himself as an elite ball-carrier as a true freshman in 2022, averaging 6.8 yards per carry while showing tremendous instincts. His 4.39-second 40 is the third best by a PSU running back under Franklin, trailing only Journey Brown’s 4.29 and Saquon Barkley’s 4.33. Barring injury, he’s going to play in the NFL and has an excellent chance to be a first-round pick when his time comes.
But there is one thing missing when it comes to pro potential, and I’m interested to see if he makes strides in that area in 2023. Last season, Singleton caught only 11 passes for 85 yards and one score. Three of those catches, 30 of those yards and the lone TD came in the 35-16 win over Michigan State.
NFL running backs must have sharp receiving skills anymore. With his rushing bonafides already established, Singleton can become that much more dangerous — and that much more valuable at the next level — by rounding out his game.
4. CB Kalen King
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2024
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 2
COMMENTS: Kalen King has already stated his intention to enter the 2024 NFL Draft, and why not? Most early mocks have him going in the first round. And even if he suffers the same fate as Joey Porter Jr., and slips into the second, it will have made financial sense for King to move on.
Heading into last season, when experts were saying Porter had a chance to be the first cornerback off the board in the 2023 draft, people who follow Penn State closely thought King was more of a sure thing when it came to NFL potential. At 5-11, 190, he does not have Porter’s outstanding length. But he is big enough, is terrific in press coverage or playing off, and just has a great feel for the game.
Indeed, King led the Power 5 in pass break-ups with 18 (Porter had 11) and was second at Penn State with three interceptions (Porter had none). None of which is meant as a knock on Porter. He has a chance to be outstanding and landed in a great spot with his hometown Pittsburgh Steelers at the top of round two.
But I believe King will finally end the streak of no PSU DBs going in round one.
3. QB Drew Allar
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2025
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 3
COMMENTS: Franklin has said there are not many people on the planet who can throw a football the way Drew Allar does, and the 2022 true freshman displayed that arm strength in limited action behind starter Sean Clifford. But there was more to his season than simply firing the ball hard and occasionally breaking fingers. At a legitimate 6-5, 242 pounds, Allar offered much better mobility than most expected. And when he was put into emergency action — during the opening win at Purdue and the ugly road beatdown at Michigan — he proved to be completely unfazed by either atmosphere.
His body of work as a rookie included going 35-of-60 for 344 yards and four scores, 74 rushing yards (before sacks were subtracted) and a TD on the ground — all in 148 snaps. Yet even with the brief resume, I’d argue that had he been eligible for the 2023 draft and entered it, Allar would have been the second Big Ten quarterback off the board. (Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell was, with the 33rd pick of the fourth round.) Allar has that much NFL potential.
Fortunately for Penn State fans, he won’t be eligible for the draft for two more years.
2. OT Olu Fashanu
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2023
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 2
COMMENTS: I’ll get around to why I don’t have a consensus top-10 pick in the 2024 mocks at the top of my list soon enough. I agree that is where Olu Fashanu is likely to land, becoming the first Penn State offensive lineman to go in the opening round since Levi Brownwent No. 5 overall in 2007 and only the third PSU O-lineman to land in the top 10.
If anything, I’d say his listed height of 6-6 is too low. Meanwhile, his listed weight of 323 is carried extremely well. Fashanu has great length, has quickly developed outstanding footwork and is regarded as one of the most focused athletes in the program. When he attends the NFL Combine, he will flirt with breaking 5.0 in the 40, which will be outstanding for a man of his size. And he just turned 20 in December, so there is still A LOT of room for development.
And that’s part of the reason I have Fashanu second on this list. He would have been the youngest player taken in the 2023 NFL Draft had he declared. If, as expected, he does enter the 2024 draft, he will still only be 21 when his pro career begins. According to statmuse.com, there were just 16 players 21 or younger in the league at the start of the 2022 season. Exactly one of them — Dallas’ Tyler Smith — was an offensive lineman.
The point? I believe Fashanu has a tremendous upside. But, as is the case with all young offensive linemen, there are too many variables in play to be certain.
1. LB Abdul Carter
INITIAL DRAFT ELIGIBILITY: 2025
YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY REMAINING: 3
COMMENTS: Abdul Carter may not be a finished product, either, something he willingly discussed with our Josh Pate during the spring. But I’m here to tell you that even at this stage of his development — two years away from being draft eligible — he could be an impact linebacker on an NFL roster right now. And that’s why he is No. 1 on my list.
Carter is 6-3, 250 pounds, and has run sub-4.5 in the 40. So he has the requisite combination of size and athletic ability to play linebacker in the league. Beyond that, like Chop Robinson — and former PSU linebacker Micah Parsons — Carter has a knack for being where the action is.
He led the team with 6.5 sacks last season, becoming the first LB to do that since Paul Posluszny tied for the team lead in 2004. He added 10.5 tackles for loss (second on the team), five quarterback hurries, four pass breakups and two forced fumbles. His 36 solo stops were second on the team and his 56 total tackles second. Carter did all of that despite being limited to a single snap in the season-opening win over Purdue due to a targeting penalty.
Carter will see most of his duty at Will linebacker in 2023, but is comfortable handling the Mike role in specialty packages. When coordinator Manny Diazgoes to his Prowler look, Carter can attack the quarterback from the edges or any gap, or drop back into coverage.
Does that mean he’ll be a top-10 pick when his draft day arrives? Well, considering a generational talent like Parsons fell to No. 12 and no linebacker has cracked the top 10 since Isaiah Simmons in 2020, probably not.
Nevertheless, I still have him pegged as the most promising NFL prospect on a 2023 Penn State squad that is loaded with them.
